Author: Richard Swinburne

Publisher: OUP/British Academy

ISBN: 9780197263419

Category: Mathematics

Page: 160

View: 6682

Bayes's theorem is a tool for assessing how probable evidence makes some hypothesis. The papers in this volume consider the worth and applicability of the theorem. Richard Swinburne sets out the philosophical issues. Elliott Sober argues that there are other criteria for assessing hypotheses. Colin Howson, Philip Dawid and John Earman consider how the theorem can be used in statistical science, in weighing evidence in criminal trials, and in assessing evidence for the occurrence of miracles. David Miller argues for the worth of the probability calculus as a tool for measuring propensities in nature rather than the strength of evidence. The volume ends with the original paper containing the theorem, presented to the Royal Society in 1763.
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A Bayesian Decision Perspective

Author: Franco Taroni,Silvia Bozza,Alex Biedermann,Paolo Garbolino,Colin Aitken

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 9780470665077

Category: Mathematics

Page: 388

View: 7015

This is the first text to examine the use of statistical methods in forensic science and bayesian statistics in combination. The book is split into two parts: Part One concentrates on the philosophies of statistical inference. Chapter One examines the differences between the frequentist, the likelihood and the Bayesian perspectives, before Chapter Two explores the Bayesian decision-theoretic perspective further, and looks at the benefits it carries. Part Two then introduces the reader to the practical aspects involved: the application, interpretation, summary and presentation of data analyses are all examined from a Bayesian decision-theoretic perspective. A wide range of statistical methods, essential in the analysis of forensic scientific data is explored. These include the comparison of allele proportions in populations, the comparison of means, the choice of sampling size, and the discrimination of items of evidence of unknown origin into predefined populations. Throughout this practical appraisal there are a wide variety of examples taken from the routine work of forensic scientists. These applications are demonstrated in the ever-more popular R language. The reader is taken through these applied examples in a step-by-step approach, discussing the methods at each stage.
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Foundations

Author: Todd D. Little

Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA

ISBN: 019937015X

Category: Psychology

Page: 515

View: 5760

This two-volume handbook on current best-practices in quantitative methods as practiced in the social, behavioral, and educational sciences covers philosophical and ethical issues, theory construction, model building and types of models, survey and experiment design, measurement issues, observational methods, statistical methods, types of analysis, types of data, and common research fallacies.
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Author: Todd D. Little

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 0199934886

Category: Psychology

Page: 506

View: 4722

Research today demands the application of sophisticated and powerful research tools. Fulfilling this need, The Oxford Handbook of Quantitative Methods is the complete tool box to deliver the most valid and generalizable answers to todays complex research questions. It is a one-stop source for learning and reviewing current best-practices in quantitative methods as practiced in the social, behavioral, and educational sciences. Comprising two volumes, this handbook covers a wealth of topics related to quantitative research methods. It begins with essential philosophical and ethical issues related to science and quantitative research. It then addresses core measurement topics before delving into the design of studies. Principal issues related to modern estimation and mathematical modeling are also detailed. Topics in the handbook then segway into the realm of statistical inference and modeling with chapters dedicated to classical approaches as well as modern latent variable approaches. Numerous chapters associated with longitudinal data and more specialized techniques round out this broad selection of topics. Comprehensive, authoritative, and user-friendly, this two-volume set will be an indispensable resource for serious researchers across the social, behavioral, and educational sciences.
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Author: David Barber

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 0521518148

Category: Computers

Page: 697

View: 9945

A practical introduction perfect for final-year undergraduate and graduate students without a solid background in linear algebra and calculus.
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Author: David J. C. MacKay

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 9780521642989

Category: Computers

Page: 628

View: 3584

Fun and exciting textbook on the mathematics underpinning the most dynamic areas of modern science and engineering.
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19th European Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 16-20 August 2010, Lisbon, Portugal : Including Prestigious Applications of Artificial Intelligence (PAIS-2010) : Proceedings

Author: Helder Coelho

Publisher: IOS Press

ISBN: 160750605X

Category: Computers

Page: 1153

View: 2930

Contains the proceedings of the nineteenth biennial European Conference on Artificial Intelligence (ECAI), which since 1974 has been Europe's principal opportunity for researchers to present and hear about the very best contemporary AI research in all its diverse forms and applications.
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Author: Raphaël Mourad

Publisher: OUP Oxford

ISBN: 0191019208

Category: Mathematics

Page: 464

View: 3137

Nowadays bioinformaticians and geneticists are faced with myriad high-throughput data usually presenting the characteristics of uncertainty, high dimensionality and large complexity. These data will only allow insights into this wealth of so-called 'omics' data if represented by flexible and scalable models, prior to any further analysis. At the interface between statistics and machine learning, probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) represent a powerful formalism to discover complex networks of relations. These models are also amenable to incorporating a priori biological information. Network reconstruction from gene expression data represents perhaps the most emblematic area of research where PGMs have been successfully applied. However these models have also created renewed interest in genetics in the broad sense, in particular regarding association genetics, causality discovery, prediction of outcomes, detection of copy number variations, and epigenetics. This book provides an overview of the applications of PGMs to genetics, genomics and postgenomics to meet this increased interest. A salient feature of bioinformatics, interdisciplinarity, reaches its limit when an intricate cooperation between domain specialists is requested. Currently, few people are specialists in the design of advanced methods using probabilistic graphical models for postgenomics or genetics. This book deciphers such models so that their perceived difficulty no longer hinders their use and focuses on fifteen illustrations showing the mechanisms behind the models. Probabilistic Graphical Models for Genetics, Genomics and Postgenomics covers six main themes: (1) Gene network inference (2) Causality discovery (3) Association genetics (4) Epigenetics (5) Detection of copy number variations (6) Prediction of outcomes from high-dimensional genomic data. Written by leading international experts, this is a collection of the most advanced work at the crossroads of probabilistic graphical models and genetics, genomics, and postgenomics. The self-contained chapters provide an enlightened account of the pros and cons of applying these powerful techniques.
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A Scaling Approach

Author: Richard M. Sibly,James H. Brown,Astrid Kodric-Brown

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

ISBN: 1119968518

Category: Science

Page: 256

View: 1039

One of the first textbooks in this emerging important field of ecology. Most of ecology is about metabolism: the ways that organisms use energy and materials. The energy requirements of individuals – their metabolic rates – vary predictably with their body size and temperature. Ecological interactions are exchanges of energy and materials between organisms and their environments. So metabolic rate affects ecological processes at all levels: individuals, populations, communities and ecosystems. Each chapter focuses on a different process, level of organization, or kind of organism. It lays a conceptual foundation and presents empirical examples. Together, the chapters provide an integrated framework that holds the promise for a unified theory of ecology. The book is intended to be accessible to upper-level undergraduate, and graduate students, but also of interest to senior scientists. Its easy-to-read chapters and clear illustrations can be used in lecture and seminar courses. Together they make for an authoritative treatment that will inspire future generations to study metabolic ecology.
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Empirical Bayes Methods for Estimation, Testing, and Prediction

Author: Bradley Efron

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 1139492136

Category: Mathematics

Page: N.A

View: 4865

We live in a new age for statistical inference, where modern scientific technology such as microarrays and fMRI machines routinely produce thousands and sometimes millions of parallel data sets, each with its own estimation or testing problem. Doing thousands of problems at once is more than repeated application of classical methods. Taking an empirical Bayes approach, Bradley Efron, inventor of the bootstrap, shows how information accrues across problems in a way that combines Bayesian and frequentist ideas. Estimation, testing and prediction blend in this framework, producing opportunities for new methodologies of increased power. New difficulties also arise, easily leading to flawed inferences. This book takes a careful look at both the promise and pitfalls of large-scale statistical inference, with particular attention to false discovery rates, the most successful of the new statistical techniques. Emphasis is on the inferential ideas underlying technical developments, illustrated using a large number of real examples.
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Deciphering How the Brain Codes Our Thoughts

Author: Stanislas Dehaene

Publisher: Penguin

ISBN: 0698151402

Category: Science

Page: 352

View: 3096

WINNER OF THE 2014 BRAIN PRIZE From the acclaimed author of Reading in the Brain, a breathtaking look at the new science that can track consciousness deep in the brain How does our brain generate a conscious thought? And why does so much of our knowledge remain unconscious? Thanks to clever psychological and brain-imaging experiments, scientists are closer to cracking this mystery than ever before. In this lively book, Stanislas Dehaene describes the pioneering work his lab and the labs of other cognitive neuroscientists worldwide have accomplished in defining, testing, and explaining the brain events behind a conscious state. We can now pin down the neurons that fire when a person reports becoming aware of a piece of information and understand the crucial role unconscious computations play in how we make decisions. The emerging theory enables a test of consciousness in animals, babies, and those with severe brain injuries. A joyous exploration of the mind and its thrilling complexities, Consciousness and the Brain will excite anyone interested in cutting-edge science and technology and the vast philosophical, personal, and ethical implications of finally quantifying consciousness. From the Trade Paperback edition.
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The Probabilistic Approach to Human Reasoning

Author: Mike Oaksford,Nick Chater

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 9780198524496

Category: Philosophy

Page: 330

View: 4327

For almost 2,500 years, the Western concept of what is to be human has been dominated by the idea that the mind is the seat of reason - humans are, almost by definition, the rational animal. In this text a more radical suggestion for explaining these puzzling aspects of human reasoning is put forward.
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Author: Polly Ha,Patrick Collinson

Publisher: Oxford Univ Pr

ISBN: N.A

Category: History

Page: 250

View: 7910

This volume brings together reformation and reception studies by exploring the relationship between reformations on the European continent and in Britain. Its eleven papers shed new light on familiar associations, draw attention to under-explored relationships, and identify how British reception in turn contributed to continued reform on the continent. Different aspects of reception from biblical translation and book history to popular politics and theological polemic are addressed. The volume also prompts further questions regarding British integration and the perception (and invention) of England's 'exceptional' status.
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Author: Richard Swinburne

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 019958043X

Category: Religion

Page: 129

View: 8509

Is There a God? offers a powerful response to modern doubts about the existence of God. It may seem today that the answers to all fundamental questions lie in the province of science, and that the scientific advances of the twentieth century leave little room for God. Cosmologists have rolled back their theories to the moment of the Big Bang, the discovery of DNA reveals the key to life, the theory of evolution explains the development of life... and with each new discoveryor development, it seems that we are closer to a complete understanding of how things are. For many people, this gives strength to the belief that God is not needed to explain the universe; that religious belief is not based on reason; and that the existence of God is, intellectually, a lost cause.Richard Swinburne, one of the most distinguished philosophers of religion of our day, argues that on the contrary, science provides good grounds for belief in God. Why is there a universe at all ? Why is there any life on Earth? How is it that discoverable scientific laws operate in the universe? Professor Swinburne uses the methods of scientific reasoning to argue that the best answers to these questions are given by the existence of God. The picture of the universe that science gives us iscompleted by God.This new, updated edition of Richard Swinburne's popular introductory book Is There a God? features two substantial changes. He presents a new, stronger argument why theism does and materialism does not provide a very simple ultimate explanation of the world. And he examines the idea of the possible existence of many other universes, and its relevance to his arguments from the fine-tuning of our universe to the existence of God.
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Proceedings : 29 November-2 December, 2001, San Jose, California

Author: Nick Cercone,Tsau Y. Lin,Xindong Wu

Publisher: IEEE

ISBN: 9780769511191

Category: Computers

Page: 677

View: 7903

This proceedings of the November 2001 conference explores the design, analysis and implementation of data mining theory and systems. The 72 regular papers and 37 posters discuss data mining algorithms, data and knowledge representation, modeling of data to support data mining, scalability issues, st
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How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, & Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy

Author: Sharon Bertsch McGrayne

Publisher: Yale University Press

ISBN: 0300175094

Category: Mathematics

Page: 335

View: 8748

Bayes rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, even breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II, and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security.Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time.
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Author: Norman Fenton,Martin Neil

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 1351978969

Category: Mathematics

Page: 704

View: 7982

Since the first edition of this book published, Bayesian networks have become even more important for applications in a vast array of fields. This second edition includes new material on influence diagrams, learning from data, value of information, cybersecurity, debunking bad statistics, and much more. Focusing on practical real-world problem-solving and model building, as opposed to algorithms and theory, it explains how to incorporate knowledge with data to develop and use (Bayesian) causal models of risk that provide more powerful insights and better decision making than is possible from purely data-driven solutions. Features Provides all tools necessary to build and run realistic Bayesian network models Supplies extensive example models based on real risk assessment problems in a wide range of application domains provided; for example, finance, safety, systems reliability, law, forensics, cybersecurity and more Introduces all necessary mathematics, probability, and statistics as needed Establishes the basics of probability, risk, and building and using Bayesian network models, before going into the detailed applications A dedicated website contains exercises and worked solutions for all chapters along with numerous other resources. The AgenaRisk software contains a model library with executable versions of all of the models in the book. Lecture slides are freely available to accredited academic teachers adopting the book on their course.
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A Critical Examination of Bayesian Confirmation Theory

Author: John Earman

Publisher: Bradford Books

ISBN: 9780262050463

Category: Psychology

Page: 272

View: 3385

There is currently no viable alternative to the Bayesian analysis of scientific inference, yet the available versions of Bayesianism fail to do justice to several aspects of the testing and confirmation of scientific hypotheses. Bayes or Bust? provides the first balanced treatment of the complex set of issues involved in this nagging conundrum in the philosophy of science. Both Bayesians and anti-Bayesians will find a wealth of new insights on topics ranging from Bayes's original paper to contemporary formal learning theory. In a paper published posthumously in 1763, the Reverend Thomas Bayes made a seminal contribution to the understanding of "analogical or inductive reasoning." Building on his insights, modem Bayesians have developed an account of scientific inference that has attracted numerous champions as well as numerous detractors. Earman argues that Bayesianism provides the best hope for a comprehensive and unified account of scientific inference, yet the presently available versions of Bayesianisin fail to do justice to several aspects of the testing and confirming of scientific theories and hypotheses. By focusing on the need for a resolution to this impasse, Earman sharpens the issues on which a resolution turns. John Earman is Professor of History and Philosophy of Science at the University of Pittsburgh.
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Author: Ronald R. Yager,Liping Liu

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 354044792X

Category: Mathematics

Page: 806

View: 8872

This is a collection of classic research papers on the Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions. The book is the authoritative reference in the field of evidential reasoning and an important archival reference in a wide range of areas including uncertainty reasoning in artificial intelligence and decision making in economics, engineering, and management. The book includes a foreword reflecting the development of the theory in the last forty years.
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