Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?

Author: Graham Allison

Publisher: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt

ISBN: 0544935330

Category: Political Science

Page: 384

View: 6863

SHORT-LISTED FOR THE 2018 LIONEL GELBER PRIZE A NEW YORK TIMES NOTABLE BOOK OF THE YEAR NAMED A BEST BOOK OF THE YEAR BY: FINANCIAL TIMES * THE TIMES (LONDON) * AMAZON “Allison is one of the keenest observers of international affairs around.”— JOE BIDEN, former vice president of the United States China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants. The reason is Thucydides’s Trap: when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling one, violence is the likeliest result. Over the past five hundred years, these conditions have occurred sixteen times; war broke out in twelve. Today, as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America, and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries “great again,” the seventeenth case looks grim. A trade conflict, cyberattack, Korean crisis, or accident at sea could easily spark a major war. In Destined for War, eminent Harvard scholar Graham Allison masterfully blends history and current events to explain the timeless machinery of Thucydides’s Trap—and to explore the painful steps that might prevent disaster today. “[A] must-read book in both Washington and Beijing.”— NIALL FERGUSON, BOSTON GLOBE “[Allison is] a first-class academic with the instincts of a first-rate politician.”— BLOOMBERG NEWS “[Full of] wide-ranging, erudite case studies that span human history . . . [A] fine book.”— NEW YORK TIMES BOOK REVIEW
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Can America and China Escape Thucydide's Trap?

Author: Graham Allison

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: 9781911617303

Category:

Page: 384

View: 373

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can America and China escape Thucydides’s Trap?

Author: Graham Allison

Publisher: Scribe Publications

ISBN: 1925548376

Category: History

Page: 384

View: 8762

China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants. The reason is Thucydides’s Trap, a deadly pattern of structural stress that results when a rising power challenges a ruling one. This phenomenon is as old as history itself. About the Peloponnesian War that devastated ancient Greece, the historian Thucydides explained: ‘It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.’ Over the past 500 years, these conditions have occurred sixteen times. War broke out in twelve of them. Today, as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America, and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries ‘great again’, the seventeenth case looks grim. Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific, a trade conflict, cyberattack, or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war. In Destined for War, the eminent Harvard scholar Graham Allison explains why Thucydides’s Trap is the best lens for understanding U.S.-China relations in the twenty-first century. Through uncanny historical parallels and war scenarios, he shows how close we are to the unthinkable. Yet, stressing that war is not inevitable, Allison also reveals how clashing powers have kept the peace in the past — and what painful steps the United States and China must take to avoid disaster today.
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The Grand Master's Insights on China, the United States, and the World

Author: Graham Allison,Robert D. Blackwill,Ali Wyne,Henry A. Kissinger

Publisher: MIT Press

ISBN: 0262312743

Category: Political Science

Page: 224

View: 2413

When Lee Kuan Yew speaks, presidents, prime ministers, diplomats, and CEOs listen. Lee, the founding father of modern Singapore and its prime minister from 1959 to 1990, has honed his wisdom during more than fifty years on the world stage. Almost single-handedly responsible for transforming Singapore into a Western-style economic success, he offers a unique perspective on the geopolitics of East and West. American presidents from Richard Nixon to Barack Obama have welcomed him to the White House; British prime ministers from Margaret Thatcher to Tony Blair have recognized his wisdom; and business leaders from Rupert Murdoch to Rex Tillerson, CEO of Exxon Mobil, have praised his accomplishments. This book gathers key insights from interviews, speeches, and Lee's voluminous published writings and presents them in an engaging question and answer format. Lee offers his assessment of China's future, asserting, among other things, that "China will want to share this century as co-equals with the U.S." He affirms the United States' position as the world's sole superpower but expresses dismay at the vagaries of its political system. He offers strategic advice for dealing with China and goes on to discuss India's future, Islamic terrorism, economic growth, geopolitics and globalization, and democracy. Lee does not pull his punches, offering his unvarnished opinions on multiculturalism, the welfare state, education, and the free market. This little book belongs on the reading list of every world leader -- including the one who takes the oath of office on January 20, 2013.
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China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower

Author: Michael Pillsbury

Publisher: Henry Holt and Company

ISBN: 162779011X

Category: Political Science

Page: 336

View: 6597

One of the U.S. government's leading China experts reveals the hidden strategy fueling that country's rise – and how Americans have been seduced into helping China overtake us as the world's leading superpower. For more than forty years, the United States has played an indispensable role helping the Chinese government build a booming economy, develop its scientific and military capabilities, and take its place on the world stage, in the belief that China's rise will bring us cooperation, diplomacy, and free trade. But what if the "China Dream" is to replace us, just as America replaced the British Empire, without firing a shot? Based on interviews with Chinese defectors and newly declassified, previously undisclosed national security documents, The Hundred-Year Marathon reveals China's secret strategy to supplant the United States as the world's dominant power, and to do so by 2049, the one-hundredth anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic. Michael Pillsbury, a fluent Mandarin speaker who has served in senior national security positions in the U.S. government since the days of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger, draws on his decades of contact with the "hawks" in China's military and intelligence agencies and translates their documents, speeches, and books to show how the teachings of traditional Chinese statecraft underpin their actions. He offers an inside look at how the Chinese really view America and its leaders – as barbarians who will be the architects of their own demise. Pillsbury also explains how the U.S. government has helped – sometimes unwittingly and sometimes deliberately – to make this "China Dream" come true, and he calls for the United States to implement a new, more competitive strategy toward China as it really is, and not as we might wish it to be. The Hundred-Year Marathon is a wake-up call as we face the greatest national security challenge of the twenty-first century.
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Can America and China Escape Thucydide's Trap?

Author: Graham T. Allison

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: 9781925322378

Category: Balance of power

Page: 368

View: 5449

Will the twenty-first century be defined by the inevitability of conflict between China and the USA?When Athens went to war with Sparta some 2,500 years ago, the Greek historian Thucydides identified one simple cause- a rising power threatened to displace a ruling one, leading inexorably to conflict. As Graham Allison explains, in the past 500 years, great powers have found themselves in 'Thucydides's Trap' sixteen times. In twelve of the sixteen - from war between the French and the Hapsburgs in the sixteenth century to the two world wars of the twentieth - the results have been catastrophic. Today, the same structural forces propel China and the United States toward a cataclysm of unseen proportions, even as both sides insist that such a war could never occur. In Destined for War, Allison compares the U.S.-China conflict to its closest parallel- World War I. There, a rising Germany threatened the supremacy of the British Empire. He sketches several scenarios in which America and China might slide, against their intent and better judgment, into a similar conflict. But he also examines the rare instances when two clashing powers have avoided disaster, and speculates about whether the current standoff could be one of those exceptions.
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From the Tower of London to Guantanamo Bay

Author: Amanda L. Tyler

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 0199856664

Category: Law

Page: 448

View: 8216

Habeas Corpus in Wartime unearths and presents a comprehensive account of the legal and political history of habeas corpus in wartime in the Anglo-American legal tradition. The book begins by tracing the origins of the habeas privilege in English law, giving special attention to the English Habeas Corpus Act of 1679, which limited the scope of executive detention and used the machinery of the English courts to enforce its terms. It also explores the circumstances that led Parliament to invent the concept of suspension as a tool for setting aside the protections of the Habeas Corpus Act in wartime. Turning to the United States, the book highlights how the English suspension framework greatly influenced the development of early American habeas law before and after the American Revolution and during the Founding period, when the United States Constitution enshrined a habeas privilege in its Suspension Clause. The book then chronicles the story of the habeas privilege and suspension over the course of American history, giving special attention to the Civil War period. The final chapters explore how the challenges posed by modern warfare during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries have placed great strain on the previously well-settled understanding of the role of the habeas privilege and suspension in American constitutional law. Throughout, the book draws upon a wealth of original and heretofore untapped historical resources to shed light on the purpose and role of the Suspension Clause in the United States Constitution, revealing all along that many of the questions that arise today regarding the scope of executive power to arrest and detain in wartime are not new ones.
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China, Japan, and the Fate of U.S. Power in the Pacific Century

Author: Richard McGregor

Publisher: Penguin

ISBN: 0399562672

Category: History

Page: 396

View: 9063

China, red or green -- Countering Japan -- Five ragged islands -- The golden years -- Japan says no -- Asian values -- Apologies and their discontents -- Yasukuni respects -- History's cauldron -- The Ampo mafia -- The rise and retreat of great powers -- China lays down the law -- Nationalization -- Creation myths -- Freezing point -- Afterword
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Shadow Banks, Ghost Cities, Massive Loans, and the End of the Chinese Miracle

Author: Dinny McMahon

Publisher: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt

ISBN: 1328846024

Category: Political Science

Page: 288

View: 9053

A stunning inside look at how and why the foundations upon which China has built the world’s second largest economy, have started to crumble. Over the course of a decade spent reporting on the ground in China as a financial journalist, Dinny McMahon gradually came to the conclusion that the widely held belief in China’s inevitable economic ascent is dangerously wrong. In this unprecedented deep dive, McMahon shows how, lurking behind the illusion of prosperity, China’s economic growth has been built on a staggering mountain of debt. While stories of newly built but empty cities, white elephant state projects, and a byzantine shadow banking system, have all become a regular fixture in the press in recent years, McMahon goes beyond the headlines to explain how such waste has been allowed to flourish, and why one of the most powerful governments in the world has been at a loss to stop it. Through the stories of ordinary Chinese citizens, McMahon tries to make sense of the unique—and often bizarre—mechanics of the Chinese economy, whether it be the state’s addiction to appropriating land from poor farmers; or why a Chinese entrepreneur decided it was cheaper to move his yarn factory to South Carolina; or why ambitious Chinese mayors build ghost cities; or why the Chinese bureaucracy was able to stare down Beijing’s attempts to break up the state’s pointless monopoly over the distribution of table salt. Debt, entrenched vested interests, a frenzy of speculation, and an aging population are all pushing China toward an economic reckoning. China’s Great Wall of Debt unravels an incredibly complex and opaque economy, one whose fortunes—for better or worse—will shape the globe like never before.
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The Power Clash Between the U.S. and China in the Pacific

Author: Michael Fabey

Publisher: Scribner

ISBN: 1501112058

Category: Political Science

Page: 336

View: 5854

This chilling account of the “warm war” over control of the South China Sea—one that is threatening to flare into full-scale conflict—presents a “telling picture of the operational challenges the US Navy faces in the western Pacific” (Wall Street Journal) from an award-winning journalist with unprecedented access to the highest naval officers in America and China. Out in the Pacific Ocean, there is a war taking place. It is a “warm war,” a shoving match between the United States, the uncontested ruler of the seas since WWII, and China, which now possesses the world’s largest navy. The Chinese regard the Pacific, and especially the South China Sea, as their ocean, and they’re ready to defend it. Each day the heat between the two countries increases as the Chinese try to claim the South China Sea for their own, and the United States insists on asserting freedom of navigation. Throughout Southern Asia, countries are responding with outrage and growing fear as China turns coral reefs into manmade islands capable of supporting airstrips and then attempts to enforce twelve-mile-radius, shoot-down zones. The immediate danger is that the five trillion dollars in international trade that passes through the area will grind to a standstill. The ultimate danger is that the US and China will be drawn into all-out war. Pulitzer Prize-nominated journalist Michael Fabey has had unprecedented access to the Navy’s most exotic aircraft carriers, cruisers, destroyers, aircraft, and submarines, as well as those who command them. In his “well-informed, readable treatment” (Library Journal, starred review), Fabey offers “good…reporting from both sides of the conflict. He gives his Chinese sources a thorough workout, the little emperors and true believers alike, and he has a sharp eye for what faces the American fleet if push comes to shove” (Kirkus Reviews). Fabey predicts the next great struggle between military superpowers will play out in the Pacific, and Crashback, more than any other book, is an accurate preview of how that conflict might unfold.
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War, Strategy, and American Interests in the Twenty-first Century

Author: Robert D. Kaplan

Publisher: N.A

ISBN: 0812996798

Category: HISTORY

Page: 280

View: 2432

A bracing, ground-level assessment of American foreign policy over the past two decades, an era that includes 9/11, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the rise of Putin's Russia, increased Chinese aggression, the potential for war in North Korea, and more. ANCHORED BY A MAJOR NEW ESSAY ABOUT CHANGING POWER DYNAMICS AMONG CHINA, EURASIA, AND AMERICA, which Kaplan wrote for the Pentagon's Office of Net Assessment, and which is now released for public view. Drawing on decades of firsthand experience as a foreign correspondent and military embed for The Atlantic,and deep reading that ranges from the lessons of Thucydides and Sun Tzu to contemporary outcomes in the Middle East, Robert D. Kaplan makes a powerful case for what timeless principles and factors should shape America's role in the world- a respect for the limits of Western-style democracy; a delineation between American interests versus American values; an awareness of the psychological toll of warfare; a projection of military power via a strong navy; and much more. In a series of vivid and clear-eyed assessments, renowned foreign policy analyst Kaplan describes an increasingly unstable world-and how American strategy should adapt accordingly. Advance praise for The Return of Marco Polo's World oWhen it comes to geopolitics and the analysis of world affairs, Robert D. Kaplan is the best in the business. These essays are not only astonishing in their breadth, depth and range, but beautifully crafted and accessible.o-John Bew, professor at the war studies department, King's College London, author of Realpolitik- A Historyand Castlereagh- A Life oA characteristically thoughtful and provocative collection of essays from Robert D. Kaplan, born of his own Marco Polo-like wanderings and rich grasp of history. Elegant and compelling, these prescient pieces are a valuable guide to the endlessly complicated geopolitics of Eurasia, and what it all means for Americans in the decades ahead.o-Ambassador William J. Burns, president, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former deputy secretary of state oRobert D. Kaplan has long been one of the most unrelenting realistic commentators on the rough, mean, conflictual world disorder that has evolved since the Cold War. This compelling collection of essays on prospects for war and peace distills his insights on a wide range of crucial issues, events, and personalities. He provides a compelling antidote to the facile optimists in the ethnocentric western intelligentsia. Read it with a stiff drink in hand, but be ready to be excited.o-Richard K. Betts, director of the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies, Columbia University
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How the Chinese Ended the Era of Western Domination

Author: Robert Bickers

Publisher: Harvard University Press

ISBN: 0674982339

Category: History

Page: 576

View: 2730

China’s new nationalism is rooted not in its present power but in shameful memories of its former weaknesses. Invaded, humiliated, and looted by foreign powers in the past, China looks out at the twenty-first century through the lens of the past two centuries. History matters deeply to Beijing’s current rulers, and Robert Bickers explains why.
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From Imitation to Innovation

Author: George S. Yip,Bruce McKern

Publisher: MIT Press

ISBN: 0262333511

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 304

View: 2945

The history-making development of the Chinese economy has entered a new phase. China is moving aggressively from a strategy of imitation to one of innovation. Driven both by domestic needs and by global ambition, China is establishing itself at the forefront of technological innovation. Western businesses need to prepare for a tidal wave of innovation from China that is about to hit Western markets, and Chinese businesses need to understand the critical importance of innovation in their future.Experts George Yip and Bruce McKern explain this epic transformation and propose strategies for both Western and Chinese companies. This book is for everyone who does business with China or in China, or is interested in the development of the world's fastest-growing economy. Western CEOs can learn from Chinese companies and can create an effective innovation process in China, for China and the world. Chinese CEOs can benefit from understanding the strategies of their peers as they strive to enter foreign markets. And all Western businesses should prepare for disruption from their new competitors.Yip and McKern provide case studies of successful firms, outline ten ways in which the managerial and innovative capabilities of these firms differ from those of Western firms, and describe how multinationals doing business in China can become part of the Chinese ecosystem of new knowledge and technology. Yip and McKern argue that these innovation capabilities will be the basis for creating world-class products and services to meet the challenges of a new era of global competition.
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Sino-American Rivalry during the Cold War

Author: Gregg A. Brazinsky

Publisher: UNC Press Books

ISBN: 1469631717

Category: History

Page: 448

View: 3448

Winning the Third World examines afresh the intense and enduring rivalry between the United States and China during the Cold War. Gregg A. Brazinsky shows how both nations fought vigorously to establish their influence in newly independent African and Asian countries. By playing a leadership role in Asia and Africa, China hoped to regain its status in world affairs, but Americans feared that China's history as a nonwhite, anticolonial nation would make it an even more dangerous threat in the postcolonial world than the Soviet Union. Drawing on a broad array of new archival materials from China and the United States, Brazinsky demonstrates that disrupting China's efforts to elevate its stature became an important motive behind Washington's use of both hard and soft power in the "Global South." Presenting a detailed narrative of the diplomatic, economic, and cultural competition between Beijing and Washington, Brazinsky offers an important new window for understanding the impact of the Cold War on the Third World. With China's growing involvement in Asia and Africa in the twenty-first century, this impressive new work of international history has an undeniable relevance to contemporary world affairs and policy making.
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China, the United States and the Continuing Logic of Great Power Conflict

Author: Christopher Coker

Publisher: Oxford University Press

ISBN: 0199396272

Category: History

Page: 217

View: 2148

The Improbable War explains why conflict between the USA and China cannot be ruled out. In 1914 war between the Great Powers was considered unlikely, yet it happened. We learn only from history, and popular though the First World War analogy is, the lessons we draw from its outbreak are usually mistaken. Among these errors is the tendency to over-estimate human rationality. All major conflicts of the past 300 years have been about the norms and rules of the international system. In China and the US the world confronts two 'exceptional' powers whose values differ markedly, with China bidding to challenge the current order. The 'Thucydidean Trap' - when a conservative status quo power confronts a rising new one - may also play its part in precipitating hostilities. To avoid stumbling into an avoidable war both Beijing and Washington need a coherent strategy, which neither of them has. History also reveals that war evolves continually. The next global conflict is likely to be played out in cyberspace and outer space and like all previous wars it will have devastating consequences. Such a war between the United States and China may seem improbable, but it is all too possible, which is why we need to discuss it now.
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The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe

Author: Graham Allison

Publisher: Macmillan

ISBN: 9780805076516

Category: Political Science

Page: 263

View: 5429

Predicts that a catastrophic nuclear attack is likely to occur within the next decade if policy makers continue present tactics, and states that such an attack is preventable, offering recommendations for addressing national vulnerabilities.
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Author: Joe McReynolds

Publisher: Brookings Institution Press

ISBN: 0985504595

Category: Political Science

Page: 438

View: 3695

Roughly once every generation, a powerful, highly influential organization within the Chinese People's Liberation Army releases a new edition of the Science of Military Strategy (SMS), a comprehensive and authoritative study which details the strategic approach that the Chinese military will take in the coming years in response to the threats and challenges facing China. The recent release of a new edition of SMS signals the potential for dramatic shifts in the PLA's approach to a number of strategic questions, but the book remains underutilized by many Western China analysts due to the lack of both an English translation and expert analysis to place these changes into context. China's Evolving Military Strategy aims to bring knowledge of these important developments to a mass audience of China watchers, policymakers, and the broader foreign policy community by providing a sector-by-sector analysis of changes in the PLA's thinking and approach from the previous edition of SMS to the present. Each chapter addresses the implications for a different portion of the Chinese military, ranging from the air, sea, and space domains to cyberspace and electromagnetic warfare, and each is written by one of the world's foremost experts on that subsection of China's military development. China's Evolving Military Strategy will serve as the cornerstone reference for a generation to come on one of China's most important declarations of its military-strategic goals and intentions.
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Author: Lucas Kello

Publisher: Yale University Press

ISBN: 0300226292

Category: Computers

Page: 320

View: 9798

An urgently needed examination of the current cyber revolution that draws on case studies to develop conceptual frameworks for understanding its effects on international order The cyber revolution is the revolution of our time. The rapid expansion of cyberspace brings both promise and peril. It promotes new modes of political interaction, but it also disrupts interstate dealings and empowers non-state actors who may instigate diplomatic and military crises. Despite significant experience with cyber phenomena, the conceptual apparatus to analyze, understand, and address their effects on international order remains primitive. Here, Lucas Kello adapts and applies international relations theory to create new ways of thinking about cyber strategy. Kello draws on a broad range of case studies, including the Estonian crisis, the Olympic Games operation against Iran, and the cyber attack against Sony Pictures. Synthesizing qualitative data from government documents, forensic reports of major incidents and interviews with senior officials from around the globe, this important work establishes new conceptual benchmarks to help security experts adapt strategy and policy to the unprecedented challenges of our times.
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The Contest for the Twenty-First Century and the Future of American Power

Author: Thomas Wright

Publisher: Yale University Press

ISBN: 030022818X

Category: Political Science

Page: 288

View: 8307

A groundbreaking look at the future of great power competition in an age of globalization and what the United States can do in response The two decades after the Cold War saw unprecedented cooperation between the major powers as the world converged on a model of liberal international order. Now, great power competition is back and the liberal order is in jeopardy. Russia and China are increasingly revisionist in their regions. The Middle East appears to be unraveling. And many Americans question why the United States ought to lead. What will great power competition look like in the decades ahead? Will the liberal world order survive? What impact will geopolitics have on globalization? And, what strategy should the United States pursue to succeed in an increasingly competitive world? In this book Thomas Wright explains how major powers will compete fiercely even as they try to avoid war with each other. Wright outlines a new American strategy—Responsible Competition—to navigate these challenges and strengthen the liberal order.
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Where They Will be Fought and how They Will be Won

Author: Peter Navarro

Publisher: FT Press

ISBN: 0136136842

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 286

View: 6254

China's breakneck industrialization is placing it on a collision course with the entire world. Tomorrow's China Wars will be fought over everything from decent jobs, livable wages, and leading-edge technologies to strategic resources such as oil, copper, and steel--even food, water, and air. Economist Navarro previews all these potential conflicts, and reveals the urgent, radical decisions that must be made to avoid catastrophe. China's thirst for oil is driving nuclear proliferation in Iran, genocide in the Sudan, even Japan's remilitarization. Navarro reveals China's shocking role in the drug trade and how its flesh trade may help trigger tomorrow's worst AIDS crisis; how China has become the world's most ruthless imperialist, how it is promoting global environmental disaster, and, perhaps most terrifying of all, how this nuclear superpower and pirate nation may be spiraling toward internal chaos.--From publisher description.
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