Author: Jeffrey S. Rosenthal
Publisher: Granta Books
Category: Social Science
Human beings have long been both fascinated and appalled by randomness. On the one hand, we love the thrill of a surprise party or the freedom of not knowing what tomorrow will bring. We are inexplicably delighted by strange coincidences and striking similarities. But we also hate uncertainty's dark side. From cancer to bird flu, diseases may strike with no apparent pattern. Terrorists attack, airplanes crash, bridges collapse, and we never know if we'll be that one-in-a-million statistic. In this entertaining look at the world of probabilities, Jeffrey Rosenthal, maths professor and improvisational comedian, explains the mechanics of randomness in fields as diverse as poker hands, email spam, crime statistics, opinion polls and lottery jackpots. Read Struck by Lightning and, chances are, you will never look at the world the same way again.
Luck, Chance, and the Meaning of Everything
Author: Jeffrey S. Rosenthal
Publisher: HarperCollins Publishers
For readers of Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Daniel Levitin with a twist of Bill Bryson—a lighthearted, entertaining and fateful exploration of luck in everyday life For centuries, people around the world have prayed for good luck and warded against bad. Every language features a good luck greeting. Sailors have long looked for an albatross on the horizon as a symbol of good fortune. Jade, clovers, rabbits’ feet, wishbones: these items have lined the pockets of those seeking good fortune. For some, it’s bad luck to walk under a ladder, to enter and leave a home through different doors or to say “Macbeth” in a theatre. But is there such a thing as luck, or does luck often just explain common sense? Don’t walk under a ladder because, well, that’s just dangerous. You won the lottery not because of any supernatural force but because a random number generator selected the same numbers that you picked out at the corner store. You run into a neighbour from your street on the other side of the world: Random chance or pure fate? (Or does it depend on how much you like your neighbour?) Jeffrey S. Rosenthal, author of the bestseller Struck by Lightning: The Curious World of Probabilities, was born on a Friday the thirteenth, a fact that he discovered long after he had become one of the world’s pre-eminent statisticians. Had he been living ignorantly and innocently under an unlucky cloud for all those years? Or is thirteen just another number? As a scientist and a man of reason, Rosenthal has long considered the value of luck, good and bad, seeking to measure chance and hope in formulas scratched out on chalkboards. In Knock on Wood, Rosenthal, with great humour and irreverence, divines the world of luck, fate and chance, putting his considerable scientific acumen to the test in deducing whether luck is real or the mere stuff of superstition.
Health, Elections, Gambling and War
Author: Michael Mark Woolfson
Publisher: World Scientific
Probability and statistics impinge on the life of the average person in a variety of ways — as is suggested by the title of this book. Very often information is provided that is factually accurate but intended to give a biased view. This book presents the important results of probability and statistics without making heavy mathematical demands on the reader. It should enable an intelligent reader to properly assess statistical information and to understand that the same information can be presented in different ways. In this second edition the author presents a new chapter exploring science and society including the way that scientists communicate with the public on current topics, such as global warming. The book also investigates pensions and pension policy, and how they are influenced by changing actuarial tables. Contents:The Nature of ProbabilityCombining ProbabilitiesA Day at the RacesMaking Choices and SelectionsNon-Intuitive Examples of ProbabilityProbability and HealthCombining Probabilities: The Craps Game RevealedThe UK National Lottery, Loaded Dice and Crooked WheelsBlock DiagramsThe Normal (or Gaussian) DistributionStatistics: The Collection and Analysis of Numerical DataThe Poisson Distribution and Death by Horse KicksPredicting Voting PatternsTaking Samples: How Many Fish in the Pond?Differences: Rats and IQsCrime is Increasing and DecreasingMy Uncle Joe Smoked 60 a DayChance, Luck and Making DecisionsScience and SocietyThe Pensions Problem Readership: Undergraduate students in mathematics; general public interested in probability and statistics. Keywords:Probability;StatisticsKey Features:Assumes a modest mathematical backgroundDeals with matters of everyday lifePresents problems and solutions for the reader to test their level of understanding
The Little Numbers That Rule Our Lives
Author: Peter Olofsson
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
What are the chances? Find out in this entertaining exploration of probabilities in our everyday lives "If there is anything you want to know, or remind yourself, about probabilities, then look no further than this comprehensive, yet wittily written and enjoyable, compendium of how to apply probability calculations in real-world situations."--Keith Devlin, Stanford University, National Public Radio's "Math Guy" and author of The Math Gene and The Math Instinct. "A delightful guide to the sometimes counterintuitive discipline of probability. Olofsson points out major ideas here, explains classic puzzles there, and everywhere makes free use of witty vignettes to instruct and amuse."--John Allen Paulos, Temple University, author of Innumeracy and A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper. "Beautifully written, with fascinating examples and tidbits of information. Olofsson gently and persuasively shows us how to think clearly about the uncertainty that governs our lives."--John Haigh, University of Sussex, author of Taking Chances: Winning with Probability. From probable improbabilities to regular irregularities, Probabilities: The Little Numbers That Rule Our Lives investigates the often-surprising effects of risk and chance in our everyday lives. With examples ranging from WWII espionage to the O.J. Simpson trial, from bridge to blackjack, from Julius Caesar to Jerry Seinfeld, the reader is taught how to think straight in a world of randomness and uncertainty. Throughout the book, readers learn: -Why it is not that surprising for someone to win the lottery twice -How a faulty probability calculation forced an innocent woman to spend three years in prison -How to place bets if you absolutely insist on gambling -How a newspaper turned an opinion poll into one of the greatest election blunders in history. Educational, eloquent, and entertaining, Probabilities: The Little Numbers That Rule Our Lives is the ideal companion for anyone who wants to obtain a better understanding of the mathematics of chance.
An Informal Guide to Probability, Risk and Statistics
Author: Brian Everitt
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Chance continues to govern our lives in the 21st Century. From the genes we inherit and the environment into which we are born, to the lottery ticket we buy at the local store, much of life is a gamble. In business, education, travel, health, and marriage, we take chances in the hope of obtaining something better. Chance colors our lives with uncertainty, and so it is important to examine it and try to understand about how it operates in a number of different circumstances. Such understanding becomes simpler if we take some time to learn a little about probability, since probability is the natural language of uncertainty. This second edition of Chance Rules again recounts the story of chance through history and the various ways it impacts on our lives. Here you can read about the earliest gamblers who thought that the fall of the dice was controlled by the gods, as well as the modern geneticist and quantum theory researcher trying to integrate aspects of probability into their chosen speciality. Example included in the first addition such as the infamous Monty Hall problem, tossing coins, coincidences, horse racing, birthdays and babies remain, often with an expanded discussion, in this edition. Additional material in the second edition includes, a probabilistic explanation of why things were better when you were younger, consideration of whether you can use probability to prove the existence of God, how long you may have to wait to win the lottery, some court room dramas, predicting the future, and how evolution scores over creationism. Chance Rules lets you learn about probability without complex mathematics.
The History, Mathematics, and Psychology of the Gambler's Illusion
Author: Joseph Mazur
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Why do so many gamblers risk it all when they know the odds of winning are against them? Why do they believe dice are "hot" in a winning streak? Why do we expect heads on a coin toss after several flips have turned up tails? What's Luck Got to Do with It? takes a lively and eye-opening look at the mathematics, history, and psychology of gambling to reveal the most widely held misconceptions about luck. It exposes the hazards of feeling lucky, and uses the mathematics of predictable outcomes to show when our chances of winning are actually good. Mathematician Joseph Mazur traces the history of gambling from the earliest known archaeological evidence of dice playing among Neolithic peoples to the first systematic mathematical studies of games of chance during the Renaissance, from government-administered lotteries to the glittering seductions of grand casinos, and on to the global economic crisis brought on by financiers' trillion-dollar bets. Using plenty of engaging anecdotes, Mazur explains the mathematics behind gambling--including the laws of probability, statistics, betting against expectations, and the law of large numbers--and describes the psychological and emotional factors that entice people to put their faith in winning that ever-elusive jackpot despite its mathematical improbability. As entertaining as it is informative, What's Luck Got to Do with It? demonstrates the pervasive nature of our belief in luck and the deceptive psychology of winning and losing. Some images inside the book are unavailable due to digital copyright restrictions.
Author: Jeffrey S Rosenthal
Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Company
Solutions Manual for Free Download This textbook is an introduction to probability theory using measure theory. It is designed for graduate students in a variety of fields (mathematics, statistics, economics, management, finance, computer science, and engineering) who require a working knowledge of probability theory that is mathematically precise, but without excessive technicalities. The text provides complete proofs of all the essential introductory results. Nevertheless, the treatment is focused and accessible, with the measure theory and mathematical details presented in terms of intuitive probabilistic concepts, rather than as separate, imposing subjects. In this new edition, many exercises and small additional topics have been added and existing ones expanded. The text strikes an appropriate balance, rigorously developing probability theory while avoiding unnecessary detail.
Seeing Through a World of Numbers
Author: Andrew Dilnot,Michael Blastland
Publisher: Profile Books
Mathematics scares and depresses most of us, but politicians, journalists and everyone in power use numbers all the time to bamboozle us. Most maths is really simple - as easy as 2+2 in fact. Better still it can be understood without any jargon, any formulas - and in fact not even many numbers. Most of it is commonsense, and by using a few really simple principles one can quickly see when maths, statistics and numbers are being abused to play tricks - or create policies - which can waste millions of pounds. It is liberating to understand when numbers are telling the truth or being used to lie, whether it is health scares, the costs of government policies, the supposed risks of certain activities or the real burden of taxes.
A Guide to Gambling, Love, the Stock Market & Just about Everything Else
Author: Amir D. Aczel
Publisher: Basic Books
In a followup to his Fermat's Last Theorem, the author shows readers how to maximize or minimize chance, depending on the circumstance, analyzing luck from a statistitian's perspective.
Everything You Need to Know About How the Economy Works and Where It's Going
Author: Robert L. Heilbroner,Lester Thurow
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
Category: Business & Economics
Explains the basic concepts of economics, describes how our economy runs, and discusses big business and international economics
Serious Scientific Answers to Absurd Hypothetical Questions
Author: Randall Munroe
Publisher: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
The creator of the incredibly popular webcomic xkcd presents his heavily researched answers to his fans' oddest questions, including “What if I took a swim in a spent-nuclear-fuel pool?” and “Could you build a jetpack using downward-firing machine guns?” 100,000 first printing.
From Marathon to Waterloo
Author: Edward Shepherd Creasy
Publisher: Courier Corporation
Ranging from Marathon to Waterloo, this 1851 classic of military history chronicles the battles that changed the course of history, with gripping, authoritative analyses of key events.
Author: Herman Melville
The narrator, an elderly lawyer who has a very comfortable business helping wealthy men deal with mortgages, title deeds, and bonds, relates the story of the strangest man he has ever known. The narrator already employs two scriveners, Nippers and Turkey. Nippers suffers from chronic indigestion, and Turkey is a drunk, but the office survives because in the mornings Turkey is sober even though Nippers is irritable, and in the afternoon Nippers has calmed down even though Turkey is drunk.
An Invitation to Effective Thinking
Author: Edward B. Burger,Michael P. Starbird
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
The Heart of Mathematics addresses the big ideas of mathematics (many of which are cutting edge research topics) in a non-computational style intended to be both read and enjoyed by students and instructors, as well as by motivated general readers. It features an engaging, lively, humorous style full of surprises, games, mind-benders, and all without either sacrificing good mathematical thought or relying on mathematical computation or symbols. The authors are award-winning authors, holding awards such as: Distinguished Teaching Award (Burger, from the Mathematical Association of America); Chauvenet Prize (the best expository mathematics writer in the world, Burger, from the MAA) and many others.
A Real and Imaginary History of Algebra
Author: John Derbyshire
Publisher: National Academies Press
Prime Obsession taught us not to be afraid to put the math in a math book. Unknown Quantity heeds the lesson well. So grab your graphing calculators, slip out the slide rules, and buckle up! John Derbyshire is introducing us to algebra through the ages -- and it promises to be just what his die-hard fans have been waiting for. "Here is the story of algebra." With this deceptively simple introduction, we begin our journey. Flanked by formulae, shadowed by roots and radicals, escorted by an expert who navigates unerringly on our behalf, we are guaranteed safe passage through even the most treacherous mathematical terrain. Our first encounter with algebraic arithmetic takes us back 38 centuries to the time of Abraham and Isaac, Jacob and Joseph, Ur and Haran, Sodom and Gomorrah. Moving deftly from Abel's proof to the higher levels of abstraction developed by Galois, we are eventually introduced to what algebraists have been focusing on during the last century. As we travel through the ages, it becomes apparent that the invention of algebra was more than the start of a specific discipline of mathematics -- it was also the birth of a new way of thinking that clarified both basic numeric concepts as well as our perception of the world around us. Algebraists broke new ground when they discarded the simple search for solutions to equations and concentrated instead on abstract groups. This dramatic shift in thinking revolutionized mathematics. Written for those among us who are unencumbered by a fear of formulae, Unknown Quantity delivers on its promise to present a history of algebra. Astonishing in its bold presentation of the math and graced with narrative authority, our journey through the world of algebra is at once intellectually satisfying and pleasantly challenging.
Power and Sex Among Apes
Author: Frans de Waal,Frans B. M. Waal
Publisher: JHU Press
Category: Political Science
The first edition of Frans de Waal's Chimpanzee Politics was acclaimed not only by primatologists for its scientific achievement but also by politicians, business leaders, and social psychologists for its remarkable insights into the most basic human needs and behaviors. Twenty-five years later, this book is considered a classic. Featuring a new preface that includes recent insights from the author, this anniversary edition is a detailed and thoroughly engrossing account of rivalries and coalitions—actions governed by intelligence rather than instinct. As we watch the chimpanzees of Arnhem behave in ways we recognize from Machiavelli (and from the nightly news), de Waal reminds us again that the roots of politics are older than humanity.
The Science and Practice of Moving with More Skill and Less Pain
Author: Todd Hargrove
Category: Health & Fitness
A Guide to Better Movement offers a clear and practical look at emerging science related to the brain's role in movement and pain. It is written for movement professionals, athletes, chronic pain sufferers, and anyone else interested in moving better and feeing better. In it, you will learn: the essential qualities of movements that are healthy and efficient; why good movement requires healthy "maps" in the brain; why pain is sometimes more about self-perception than tissue damage or injury; the science behind mind-body practices; general principles that can be used to improve any movement practice; and 25 illustrated and simple movement lessons to help you move better and feel better.
A Book of Lenses, Second Edition
Author: Jesse Schell
Publisher: CRC Press
Good game design happens when you view your game from as many perspectives as possible. Written by one of the world's top game designers, The Art of Game Design presents 100+ sets of questions, or different lenses, for viewing a game’s design, encompassing diverse fields such as psychology, architecture, music, visual design, film, software engineering, theme park design, mathematics, puzzle design, and anthropology. This Second Edition of a Game Developer Front Line Award winner: Describes the deepest and most fundamental principles of game design Demonstrates how tactics used in board, card, and athletic games also work in top-quality video games Contains valuable insight from Jesse Schell, the former chair of the International Game Developers Association and award-winning designer of Disney online games The Art of Game Design, Second Edition gives readers useful perspectives on how to make better game designs faster. It provides practical instruction on creating world-class games that will be played again and again.
Two Statisticians Explain What's Worth Worrying about (and What's Not) in the 21st Century
Author: Simon Briscoe,Hugh Aldersey-Williams
Publisher: Skyhorse Publishing Inc.
Category: Social Science
A lighthearted reference on how to assess real risks in the face of today's media-hyped threats covers a wide range of anxiety-provoking scares from bird flu and the obesity epidemic to climate change and asteroid collisions, in a guide that reveals the ways in which statistics are misrepresented to promote vested interests and counsels readers on how to counter panic with healthy skepticism.